Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook: Electric Car Sales Expected to Reach 17 Million in 2024
According to the latest report "Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), it is projected that over one-fifth of new car sales globally will be electric vehicles by 2024, with electric car demand continuing to soar over the next decade.
The report indicates that the rising sales of electric vehicles will reshape the global automotive industry and significantly reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. The IEA optimistically predicts that global electric car sales will maintain strong momentum in 2024, reaching approximately 17 million units. In the first quarter of this year, electric vehicle sales grew by around 25% compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate remaining stable but on a larger base. It is noteworthy that global electric vehicle sales in the first quarter of this year have essentially matched the total for the entire year of 2020.
The Chinese market is expected to continue leading the pack, with electric car sales in China projected to soar to around 10 million units by 2024, accounting for approximately 45% of total car sales in China. As for the U.S. market, it is estimated that around one-ninth of new car sales this year will be electric vehicles. Despite a sluggish outlook for overall passenger car sales in Europe and the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still expected to account for one-fourth of new car sales in the region.
This strong growth trajectory follows that of 2023. Last year, global electric vehicle sales surged by 35% to nearly 14 million units. While demand is primarily concentrated in China, Europe, and the United States, some emerging markets such as Vietnam and Thailand are also showing growth trends, with electric vehicle sales in these two countries accounting for 15% and 10% of total new car sales, respectively.
The report indicates that the investment boom in battery manufacturing underscores the continuous development of the electric vehicle supply chain to meet ambitious expansion plans by car manufacturers. Therefore, the proportion of electric vehicles on the road is expected to continue to rise rapidly. Based on current policy settings alone, it is projected that by 2030, nearly one-third of vehicles on Chinese roads will be electric, while the proportion in the United States and the European Union will approach one-fifth.
This shift will have a significant impact on the automotive industry and the energy sector. In China, over 60% of the purchase cost of electric cars sold in 2023 was already lower than that of gasoline cars. In the United States and Europe, gasoline cars still have a lower average selling price, but intense market competition and ongoing improvements in battery technology are expected to drive down electric vehicle prices in the coming years. The continued growth in electric vehicle exports from Chinese automakers, accounting for over half of global sales in 2023, will further reduce the cost of purchasing electric cars.
According to the IEA report, ensuring the availability of public charging infrastructure is crucial for the continued development of the electric vehicle market. In 2023, the installation of global public charging stations increased by 40% compared to 2022, with the growth rate of DC fast charging stations surpassing that of AC slow charging stations and AC fast charging stations.
However, the IEA also points out that to reach the levels of electric vehicle ownership promised by governments worldwide, the charging network will need to grow sixfold by 2035. At the same time, policy support and careful planning will be required to ensure that the electricity demand from charging does not overload the grid.
